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☆ The US is weighing using the power of the dollar to stop Chinese banks aiding Russia — but its plan could backfire
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Chinese banks are helping to aid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US alleges. The US is considering sanctions to cut Chinese banks off from the dollar, according to The Wall Street Journal. AdvertisementThe US is drawing up sanctions that could cause some Chinese banks to lose access to the dollar, according to The Wall Street Journal. In response to previous sanctions, Russia and China intensified efforts to create exchange mechanisms that don't rely on the dollar. Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank, told The Wall Street Journal that regional Chinese banks had emerged that had little involvement in dollar exchanges.

Persons: —, Antony Blinken, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko, Maria Snegovaya Organizations: Wall Street, Service, Reuters, Financial, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Center for Strategic, International Studies Locations: Ukraine, China, Russia, Italy, Russian

☆ Russia's economic strength will last another 18 months before unraveling as Putin grapples with policy 'trilemma,' think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewRussia's economic strength could last another year-and-a-half before it starts to fade, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In a best-case scenario, the current arrangement will likely begin to come apart within eighteen months owing to growing imbalances and possible social problems," Prokopenko warned. In other words, temporary fixes and a decline in living standards will add to the political and economic headwinds facing the Kremlin," Prokopenko said. Experts have warned of near-term social unrest in Russia, particularly as living standards continue to deteriorate.

Persons: —, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko, Putin Organizations: Service, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Washington DC, Monetary Fund, Business, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Kremlin Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Moscow

☆ Putin appears unstoppable, but even he 'doesn't know where the tolerance of the Russian people lies,' an economic historian said
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's economy appears resilient amid its war with Ukraine which has entered its third year. Military spending has reached 40% of Russia's budget, overshadowing social spending. AdvertisementDespite sweeping Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, Russia posted a GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 after contracting 1.2% in 2022. Experts say Russia's growth is driven primarily by war spending and subsidies. An International Monetary Fund official told CNBC earlier this month that Russia's economy is starting to look like the Soviet Union's.

Persons: —, Putin, Mark Harrison, Harrison, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Guardian, Military, Service, Warwick University, Monetary Fund, Foreign Affairs, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Center of Eastern European, International, International Monetary Fund, CNBC Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Russian, Soviet Union, Soviet

☆ How Russia has avoided bankrupting itself after 2 years of waging war in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

1: By waging war outside its own bordersOne critical reason Russia's economy is still ticking is because of the location of the war. AdvertisementConsider the impact of the war on the economies of both Russia and Ukraine. In 2022, the first year of the war, Russia's economy contracted 1.2%, according to official statistics. Russia was facing a demographic crisis with a declining population and falling fertility rate even before its war with Ukraine. 4: By stimulating and steadying its economy with subsidies and policiesGovernment subsidies, spending, and policies are also propping up Russia's economy.

Persons: —, Hassan Malik, Loomis Sayles, it's, Malik, Vladimir Putin's, Sergei Guriev, Malik isn't, Alex Isakov, Putin, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Service, Business, Reuters, US, Exchange, European Bank for Reconstruction, Bloomberg Economics, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Locations: Russia, Moscow, Boston, Crimea, Ukraine, Russian, China, India, Austrian

☆ Russia may have to raise taxes to meet the spiraling cost of invading Ukraine: UK intel
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Thibault Spirlet | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Kremlin has plans to hike Russia's spending by 26% in 2024, per the UK's Ministry of Defence. Russia's National Wealth Fund is "increasingly being used to fund its invasion of Ukraine," it said. AdvertisementThe Kremlin will likely need to impose austerity measures to resolve Russia's budget deficit amid the growing cost of its invasion of Ukraine, according to UK intelligence. Advertisement"It is likely that the government will need to reduce its contributions to the National Wealth Fund and increase domestic taxes and debt to fund its planned expenditure," the UK MOD said. Such policies will have negative medium-to-long-term impacts, the UK MOD said on Monday.

Persons: —, Alexandra Prokopenko, who's Organizations: Ministry of Defence, MOD, Wealth, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, National Wealth Fund, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Center of Eastern European, International Studies, Foreign, Reuters, Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, Russian

LONDON (AP) — Russia's State Duma took a step forward Wednesday towards approving its biggest-ever federal budget which will increase spending by around 25% in 2024, with record amounts going on defense. Part of the Russian budget is secret as the Kremlin tries to conceal its military plans and sidestep scrutiny of its war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest Russia is in third place globally for defense spending behind China and the United States, which spends around $850 billion a year. The main driver of that growth is Russia's war in Ukraine, which is now as important to the Kremlin economically as it is politically. If there is a reduction in military spending, or a need to reduce spending which impacts living standards, it could send shockwaves through the Russian economy and significantly impact ordinary people.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, ”, Richard Connolly, Farida Rustamova, Maksim Tovkaylo, Alexandra Prokopenko, Anton Siluanov, “, Connolly, they’ve, ” Prokopenko, Prokopenko, — — David McHugh Organizations: —, Duma, Kremlin, Royal United Services Institute, Independent, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Russian Central Bank, Finance, Defense, Central Bank Locations: — Russia's, Russia, Ukraine, London, China, United States, Russian, West, India, Berlin, Frankfurt

☆ Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - His war on Ukraine may not be unfolding according to plan, but President Vladimir Putin can still claim that the Russian economy is performing, as he says, “better than previously expected”. This kind of understatement is unusual for the Kremlin leader: with a tight labour market and inflation showing no signs of abating, the Russian economy is in fact overheating. And these are conservative numbers, because other types of war spending – such as new construction in the occupied territories – are hidden in other sections of the budget. The Russian currency is down 30% since its January high. Follow @pierrebri on XCONTEXT NEWSThe Russian economy will grow by 2.2% in 2023, the International Monetary Fund said in its October World Economic Outlook.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, “, Putin, Alexandra Prokopenko, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Kremlin, International Monetary, Bank of Russia, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of, Danone, Carlsberg, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Russia, –, Moscow, Europe, Lithuania, microchips, Kazakhstan, Bank of Russia, United States, China, U.S, Beijing

That’s almost three times what Russia spent on defense in 2021, before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Those figures are likely to underestimate the total spent on Russia’s war effort. He said that before the war Russia would typically splash around 3-4% of its annual gross domestic product on defense but now it could be anywhere between 8% and 10%. Russia’s exports are still greater than the value of its imports, despite a boost to the latter from the hefty military spending. Rising military spending is, on the other hand, boosting Russia’s industrial output and, with it, GDP.

Persons: London CNN —, Vladimir Putin, Putin, That’s, Richard Connolly, Janis Kluge, Irina Okladnikova, Liam Peach, it’s, Peach, Kluge, “, ”, —, Maksim Konstantinov, Alexandra Suslina, Suslina, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko, — Anna Cooban, Tim Lister, Olesya Dmitracova Organizations: London CNN, Reuters, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Royal United Services Institute for Defence, Security Studies, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Capital Economics, CNN, “, ZUMA, International Monetary Fund, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, International Energy Agency, West Locations: “, Ukraine, Russia, Stockholm, Moscow, “ Russia, Russian, Saint Petersburg, Soviet, Berlin

☆ Russia’s Moves to Shore Up Ruble Reflect War’s Toll on Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Anatoly Kurmanaev | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

The Russian currency fell nearly 25 percent since the beginning of the year. “The ruble exchange rate is only an indicator,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a former Russian central bank official. The ruble plummeted to as low as 135 per dollar and the central bank took a series of dramatic measures, including capital controls, to stave off a full-blown meltdown. The most immediate concern for Russian financial policymakers is the possibility of significant inflation. The country’s central bank reacted to that risk late last month with a higher-than-expected rise in interest rates, to 8.5 percent.

Persons: ”, Alexandra Prokopenko, Vladimir V, Putin, Yevgeny V Organizations: Bank of Russia, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Locations: Moscow, Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Soviet Union

☆ The Kremlin has pumped so much money into the economy that it's creating a boom — but this house of cards could topple anytime soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's wartime economy is thriving, the New York Times reported Monday. Corporate loans have increased 19% in the year to June as investments grew, according to The Times, citing Russian central bank's figures. Russia's central bank has also been candid about its gloomy assessments of the economy — which at times were at odds with more bullish statements from the Kremlin. But, the institution has come under pressure from Moscow to give a more "upbeat assessment" about the country's economy, Bloomberg reported in February. In April last year, Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina warned the country's reserves won't last infinitely.

Persons: Wagner, Alexandra Prokopenko, Elvira Nabiullina, Ariel Chernyy, Chernyy Organizations: New York Times, Service, Putin, Times, Reuters, Wagner Group, The, Frank Media, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Bloomberg Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia's, Russian, Moscow

☆ There's blood in the water after Prigozhin's revolt shattered the façade of Putin's invincibility
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Jason Corcoran | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

It represented the most significant affront to President Vladimir Putin's 23-year reign. It has also fed paranoia and put a spotlight on Aleksey Dyumin, Putin's ex-bodyguard turned governor. A brief and ultimately aborted attempt at a coup d'état by Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin represented the most significant affront to President Vladimir Putin's 23-year reign. President Vladimir Putin (L) and Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula and Putin's former personal bodyguard, in Moscow in 2016. Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Tula Governor Aleksey Dyumin visit Russian writer Lev Tolstoy's former home in 2016.

Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Aleksey Dyumin, Putin's, —, Vladimir Putin —, Prigozhin, Vladimir Fesenko, trundling, Sergey Shoigu, Valery Gerasimov, There's Prigozhin, Wagner, Putin, Belarus —, defenestration, Dyumin, Shoigu, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Svetlov, Igor Girkin, Alexander Lukashenko —, Dyumin's, Dmitry Peskov, Boris Yeltsin, Viktor Yanukoyvch, Girkin, Andrei Gurulyov, Russia's, Lev Tolstoy's, Tatiana Stanovaya, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko, Sergei Surovikin, Surovikin, Viktor Zolotov, Zolotov, Alexander Lukashenko, Chris Weafer Organizations: Service, Kremlin, Kommersant, Angry Patriots, Russia's First Channel, Prigozhin, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Central Bank, Washington Post, New York Times, Defense Ministry, Moscow Times, National Guard, Ministry, Macro Locations: Russian, Russia, Rostov, Ukraine, Moscow, Voronezh, Lipetsk, St, Petersburg, Minsk, Belarus, Russia's Tula, Kremlin, Tula, Dyumin's Tula, St Petersburg, Prigozhin, Crimea, Berlin, Novosibirsk, Osipovichi, Africa, Syria

☆ 'No sane investor' could be fooled by Putin's charade of optimism for Russia's economy, researcher says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Putin's show of Russia's economic strength won't fool any "sane investor," Carnegie scholar Alexandra Prokopenko said. She pointed to Russia's growing budget deficit and labor shortage as its war on Ukraine drags on. Experts have warned of trouble for Russia's economy as war and sanctions bite into the nation's finances. GDP could grow as much as 2% this year, Putin estimated, adding that the nation's military spending had only resulted in a "small" budget deficit so far. The Kremlin's official statistics also give a misleading view of Russia's economy, she said.

Persons: Alexandra Prokopenko, —, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Prokopenko, it's, SPIEF Organizations: Carnegie, Service, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Central Bank of Russia, St ., Economic, Carnegie Endowment, International, Defense Ministry, Yale Locations: Ukraine, St, St . Petersburg, Russian

☆ Many in Russia's elite no longer believe Putin can win the Ukraine war, report says: 'The best they hope for is that Russia will lose without humiliation'
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Members of the Russian elite are turning against the Ukraine war, Bloomberg reported. The best they can hope for is a "frozen" conflict or a loss in which Russia isn't humilated, the report said. Five sources told Bloomberg that while no one is willing to "stand up" to Putin over the invasion, belief in his authority has been shaken. Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian journalist and central bank advisor, told Bloomberg that "'the best they hope for is that Russia will lose without humiliation." Many in Russia's business and economic elite were targeted by Western sanctions after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Persons: Putin, —, Vladimir Putin, Russia isn't humilated, Kirill Rogov, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Russia, Wilson Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Russian, Ukrainian

☆ Russia's economy faces a 'massive brain drain' as over 1 million young workers exit labor force, says former central bank official
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's economy faces a "massive brain drain," a former central bank adviser told NPR. Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser at Russia's central bank, told NPR last week that many educated and skilled workers have fled the country. And about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded while fighting in Ukraine, with some estimates putting losses at 500 troops a day. As for Prokopenko, she also fled Russia soon after last year's invasion and is now a scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Germany. Prokopenko has sounded previous alarms on Russia's economy this year, saying in a report in May that Western sanctions will keep Russia's economy frozen.

Persons: Alexandra Prokopenko, —, it's, we've, Prokopenko, Vladimir Putin's, Putin Organizations: NPR, Service, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, West, Financial Times Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Germany

☆ Russia's economic war against with the West is entering a dangerous new stage, scholar says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's economic war against with the West is entering a dangerous new stage, Alexandra Prokopenko wrote. "Russia's economic confrontation with the west following the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine is entering a dangerous new stage," she warned. After Moscow suffered court defeats that kept Russian assets frozen in Europe, the Kremlin has since established a legal framework to temporarily nationalize foreign assets in Russia, Prokopenko added. "So far, neither Russia nor Europe has a comprehensive strategy on how to deal with the stranded assets," she said. The appetite of Putin's cronies to seize western assets in Russia will only add insult to injury."

☆ Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Cut off from foreign markets by sanctions, Vladimir Putin’s government is at pains to finance budget deficits that would have been manageable in peacetime. The financial difficulties are pushing Russia further into the sphere of influence of China’s President Xi Jinping, who visits Moscow this week. Dipping into the fund, though, will push Moscow further into China’s financial orbit, Russian economist Alexandra Prokopenko has noted. In the short term, financial hope for Russia can only come from a significant increase in oil and gas prices. Trade between China and Russia increased by 34% last year as Chinese imports of oil and gas jumped 50%.

India's oil trade, in response to the turmoil of sanctions and the Ukraine war, provides the strongest evidence so far of a shift into other currencies that could prove lasting. MTS had facilitated some Indian oil non-dollar payments, the trade sources said. An Indian refining source said most Russian banks have faced sanctions since the war but Indian customers and Russian suppliers are determined to keep trading Russian oil. "As it is, the government is not asking us to stop buying Russian oil, so we are hopeful that an alternative payment mechanism will be found in case the current system is blocked." Similarly, many banks from Russia have opened accounts with Indian banks to facilitate trade.

☆ Analysis: Russian economy holding up but the road back to prosperity may be long
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"The Russian economy and system of governance proved to be much stronger than the West supposed," President Vladimir Putin told Russia's political, military and business elite this week. 'GUNS NOT BUTTER'He also argued for sustainable domestic development and a self-sufficient economy, recalling a criticism levelled against Soviet leaders so focused on military spending they ignored people's welfare. But Russia is ramping up military spending, and diverting funds from hospitals and schools will ultimately hamper the development of civilian economic infrastructure. Prokopenko, who also highlighted the opportunity cost to the economy, said Russia's financial leadership had become used to navigating crises. Putin can be proud of his 'Fortress Russia' that his financial leadership built for him," she said.

☆ Russia's wheat harvest could hit a record 100 million tons this year, but a perfect storm of economic conditions is keeping it from being exported
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's wheat harvest could hit a record 100 million tons this year, according to SovEcon. The country's wheat harvest could hit a record 100 million metric tons this year, according to SovEcon, a research firm focused on Black Sea grains and oilseeds. Russia is the world's top wheat exporter, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's wheat exports, according to US Department of Agriculture data. SovEcon's forecast is a 33% increase over the country's 75.2 million-ton wheat harvest last year, according to the USDA. The inter-government International Grain Council forecasts global wheat production at 792 million tons this year — which is more than its global consumption forecast of 785 million tons, according to the council's report released on Thursday.

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